Hong Kong, 6 July 2026 — — Hong Kong’s land sale programme for FY2026/27 is set against a more measured market backdrop, with the Government lowering its land premium target to approximately HK$18 billion. Based on CBRE’s latest assessment, actual revenue may reach HK$14–16 billion, reflecting both market conditions and a more cautious supply approach.
“Hong Kong’s land sale programme this year reflects a more pragmatic alignment with prevailing market conditions. While headline revenue may fall short of target, this also signals a disciplined approach to land release that prioritises long-term market stability over short-term outperformance,” said Hannah Jeong, Executive Director, Head of Valuation & Advisory Services, CBRE Hong Kong.
“The HK$18 billion target is best viewed as a realistic benchmark rather than a firm expectation. A more moderate outcome would reflect current market dynamics, while also signalling the Government’s willingness to pace supply in line with demand. Lower land revenue this year should be seen in context. It indicates that the pipeline is being managed rather than accelerated. What Hong Kong’s housing market needs is right supply in appropriate locations and at levels that support sustainable development economics. In this regard, FY2026/27 reflects a more balanced and responsive approach to market conditions,” added Eddie Tsui, Senior Director, Valuation & Advisory Services, CBRE Hong Kong.
Tender Activity Likely to Remain Selective
The FY2026/27 Land Sale List includes a mix of rolled-over and new residential sites, with no commercial land planned, reflecting continued caution in office and retail sectors. CBRE expects around seven residential sites may be brought to market, with approximately 4-5 successful tenders out of these seven.
Some sites face persistent challenges. Ta Ku Ling, Sai Kung, which has appeared on multiple sale lists since 2023, continues to be affected by planning and development constraints. Cape Road, Stanley may see a more limited bidder pool amid elevated financing costs and the introduction of a higher stamp duty tier on properties transacting at HK$100 million or above.
The pilot large-scale land disposal (LSLD) in Hung Shui Kiu / Ha Tsuen New Development Area closed on 3 July 2026, with at least two proposals submitted and expected to have less than five budders. The response demonstrates that market interest remains for large-scale Northern Metropolis opportunities despite a challenging operating environment. As the first project under the Government’s new LSLD framework, the outcome will provide an important reference point for assessing market appetite and refining future land disposal strategies, with two further LSLD sites expected to be launched in 2027.
In contrast, Tung Chung Area 106A attracted with strong interests as predicted and was sold with higher-than-expected land price, as developers rushed for right-sized quality land bank in mature locations, while two Shek Mun sites offer urban accessibility and stable mid-market fundamentals.
Implications for Supply and Market Fundamentals
A potential shortfall in land premium revenue does not necessarily indicate market weakness. Instead, it reflects a more calibrated pace of land disposal. Sites that are deferred or rolled over will not immediately enter the development pipeline, which may moderate future supply.
Residential completions are currently projected at around 12,000–15,000 units annually through 2027–2028. Against steady underlying demand, this suggests a more balanced medium-term outlook.
The Government’s adjusted revenue target and willingness to roll over sites indicate a more active approach to supply management. This may help support market stability while allowing time for demand to normalise.
Outlook: Stability Before Recovery
While a broad-based price recovery has yet to materialize, ongoing supply discipline is expected to help establish a more solid foundation for Hong Kong’s residential market over the medium term.
“Lower land revenue in the near term should be viewed in context. A more measured development pipeline can support healthier market conditions over time, particularly when aligned with realistic pricing and end-user demand,” Tsui said.
Amid a gradual market recovery and rising policy uncertainties, CBRE maintains its forecast of 8%–10% growth in Hong Kong residential property prices for 2026. Given that prices have already risen by 7.4% year-to-date, this implies limited upside for the remainder of the year. The market is therefore expected to enter a consolidation phase as earlier gains are absorbed and price momentum moderates.
In contrast, rental market fundamentals remain strong. Demand continues to be supported by ongoing talent inflows under various admission schemes, alongside a steady increase in non-local student numbers. Leasing activity is expected to strengthen further in the third quarter of 2026, as the summer period traditionally marks a peak season driven by student arrivals and corporate relocations. Residential rents are projected to grow by 5% to 8% in 2026, with the potential to reach new record highs.
Key Stats at a Glance
- Government land revenue target FY2026/27: ~HK$18 billion
- CBRE estimated outcome: HK$14-16 billion
- Likely stronger interest: Tung Chung Area 106A; Shek Mun (Shatin), Cape Road (Stanley)
- Residential completions outlook (2027–2028): 12,000–15,000 units annually
- CBRE price outlook
- Mass residential price: +8% to +10%
- Luxury residential price: +5% to +8%