The Rating and Valuation Department released the latest home price index. Eddie Kwok, Executive Director, Valuation & Advisory Services, CBRE Hong Kong says:
- Amid an ongoing market recovery and increasing policy uncertainties, we maintain our forecast of 5%–10% growth in Hong Kong residential property prices in 2026. As prices have already advanced by 7.4% year-to-date, this suggests limited upside for the remainder of the year, with the market likely to enter a consolidation phase as earlier gains are absorbed and price momentum softens.
- The recent correction in the Hong Kong stock market is likely to dampen market sentiment, while tighter Chinese regulations on outbound investment may reduce mainland capital flows into the property sector. These combined headwinds are expected to weigh on investment demand and market activity, potentially leading to a decline in transaction volumes in the coming months.
- In contrast, rental market fundamentals remain robust. Demand continues to be supported by ongoing talent inflows under various admission schemes, alongside a steady rise in non-local student numbers. Leasing activity is expected to pick up further in the third quarter of 2026, as the summer period traditionally marks the peak season driven by student arrivals and corporate relocations. We expect residential rents to increase by 5% to 8% in 2026, with the potential to reach new record highs.