Regarding the latest June statistics from the Land Registry, the following commentary is from Eddie Kwok, Executive Director, Valuation & Advisory Services, CBRE:
- Transaction volume increased up 16.7% m-o-m to 5,955 units in June 2025, according to data from Land Registry. Residential transaction volume has consistently exceeded 5,000 units for four consecutive months, marking the first such occurrence since the market downturn in late 2021.
- For the first half of 2025, transaction volume went up by 4.2% y-o-y to 28,947 units. Although the growth was just a few percentages, current market conditions are demonstrably stronger than the same period in 2024. Last year’s surge was primarily fueled by the government’s removal of property austerity measures. The fact that positive performance has continued this year, despite the absence of significant stimulus, indicates a more resilient and fundamentally sound residential market
- The growth mainly contributed by secondary market which performed better year-on-year in H1 2025 with more than 19,000 transactions, while primary sales closing the first half with around 9,000 units. This disparity stemmed from developers delaying project launches to reassess pricing and strategies after the market volatility in April.
Eddie Kwok, Executive Director, Valuation & Advisory Services
Outlook
- A consistent increase in transaction volume over the next six months is anticipated, resulting in year-over-year growth during the second half of 2025. With more new projects launching, primary sales are expected to gain a larger market share compared to its first half.
- We maintain our forecast of close to 60,000 transactions for the year, representing approximately 10% year-on-year increase. Primary sales are projected to contribute approximately 18,000 to 20,000 units, with nearly 40,000 units coming from secondary sales.
- Although Housing Bureau indicates a mounting level of unsold units of completed projects, we remain optimistic that we are approaching the peak. Our observations indicate that the market is consistently absorbing 1,000 to 2,000 new units each month. Consequently, we anticipate a decline in inventory levels, potentially as early as the second half of the year.